How we got to that number.

The product is in preliminary calibration. Projections on the calculator and on a Pitch Sheet are anchored to 9 public industry baselines and academic meta-analyses, and each dollar figure carries a band of ±30%. The band is the range the true number is likely to sit in, and it tightens with each post-event check we take in.

A speaker is scored across four pillars, derived from face, body, and voice signals on uploaded video:

• Poise. Composure under load. Brow stillness, postural stability, vocal cleanness.

• Animation. Visible energy. Expression dynamics, gesture amplitude, vocal range.

• Connection. Audience-direction signals. Gaze, engagement intensity, vocal pacing discipline.

• Conviction. Channel congruence and the absence of leakage cues (suppression, contempt, peak asymmetry).

The four blend into a composite Proof of Impact (POI) score on 0-100, on weights we chose, mapped to four bands:

• Foundation0-49
• Capable50-69
• Elite70-84
• Iconic85-100

Each pillar also carries a confidence figure: the share of input weight that had data behind it, across face track, body track, and prosody. Prosody is the pitch, pace, and loudness of a voice. A pillar below the confidence floor is dropped from the composite and flagged.

Each outcome metric runs on a weighted blend of pillars. Rows sum to 1.00.

Animation and Connection carry the immediate outcomes, retention and on-site spend, because those are the pillars that hold a room. Conviction carries the durable ones, return rate, sponsor renewal, and social amplification, on the reasoning that authenticity is what gets remembered.

POI band → outcome multiplier against a Capable-median speaker:

Each step traces to a published floor. Capable to Elite is +25%, matching the low end of vocal-variation retention research and of well-designed upsell uplift. Elite to Iconic adds another +25%, matching the source-effects expertise band in the persuasion meta-analysis literature. The Foundation penalty of 0.70 matches the 25-30% session drop-off in EventsAir KPI data.

Where the dollar figures come from. These are medians from public, mostly Western corporate event data:

• Median session retention rate: 70%
• Median additional on-site spend per attendee: $26.62
• Median YoY rebooking rate: 45%
• Median sponsor renewal probability: 55%

Supply your own event context, meaning audience size, ticket price, on-site spend per head, sponsor revenue, and prior-year return rate, and it overrides these. The calculator opens on a 1,500-attendee corporate conference at a $1,200 ticket, $180 on-site spend, and $2M in sponsor revenue.

Each dollar projection, on the calculator and on a Pitch Sheet, carries a symmetric band of ±30%. Symmetric means the band runs the same distance either side, and the half-width is the distance from the number to one edge. We would rather show a wide band we can stand behind than a tight one we cannot.

The band on the total is computed by root-sum-of-squares across the per-metric half-widths, which assumes those errors are roughly independent. If production calibration correlates them, the total band widens.

Post-event reconciliation uploads feed the calibration loop: audience retention from the event app, post-event survey scores, sponsor renewal commitments, and social mention volume. The bands tighten with √N, the square root of the number of sessions. On that assumption, 200 measured-outcome sessions bring the half-width to ±15%, and one thousand brings it to ±10%.

Each coefficient on this page traces to one of these, and the underlying claims are public.

• Antonakis et al. — Charismatic Leadership Meta-Analysisacademic

  76-study, 36,031-individual meta-analysis — charisma is a measurable behavioural construct (vocal delivery, gestures, facial expression, eye contact) and predicts task performance, citizenship, and group performance.

• WiFi Talents — Speaker Industry Statistics 2024industry

  Vocal pitch variation lifts retention scores by up to 25%. Eye contact maintained 90% of the time rates a speaker 20% more persuasive. Storytelling makes information 22× more memorable than facts alone.

• AAE Speakers — 2024 Speaking Industry Benchmark Reportindustry

  67% of event planners say finding the right speaker is the most time-consuming part of their job. 49% of marketers say audience engagement is the single biggest contributor to a successful event.

• Ticket Fairy — Venue KPIs 2026industry

  Industry baseline: organisers generate ≈ $26.62 additional on-site revenue per attendee beyond the base ticket price. Larger events exceed $40 per attendee. On-site spend (F&B, merch, premium upgrades) is 15-30% of total live event revenue.

• PCMA Convene — 55% of Meeting Budgetindustry

  F&B accounts for 29% of exhibition + meeting cost. Combined F&B + AV + speaker/entertainment line items account for 55% of total meeting spend — the speaker is not a rounding error in the P&L.

• Cvent — 390 Event Statistics 2026industry

  72% of CPG event attendees post or share brand content after an event (Spiro). Receiving post-event communications increased purchase intent by 45%. Attendance retention is tracked as a key ROI metric by 59% of marketers (Splash).

• Remo — B2B Event Sponsorship ROI Guideindustry

  B2B event leads typically cost $150-300 each. Average event ROI is 25-34% across the industry, varying with attendance, sponsorship revenue, and brand awareness.

• EventsAir — 10 Event KPIsindustry

  Sponsor booth location: prime locations near registration, coffee stations, and main stages see 3× more traffic than tucked-corner locations. Sessions immediately following high-engagement programming see materially higher booth traffic in the post-session window.

• Source Effects in Communication & Persuasion (J. Acad. Marketing Sci.)academic

  Meta-analysis: speaker expertise has the largest single effect on persuasion outcomes — averaging 16% of explained variance. Trustworthiness and dynamism (perceived energy / animation) follow as the next two largest factors.